Pöhö vaivaa

Tulevien eduskuntavaalien myötä talouskeskustelu on ymmärrettävästi vilkastunut eri puolueiden ja ehdokkaiden sekä myös useiden talousasiantuntijoiden osallistuessa siihen. Keskustelu onkin tärkeää, sillä Suomi on joutunut taloudelliseen ahdinkoon, josta selviäminen edellyttää onnistuneita talouspoliittisia toimenpiteitä.

Useimpien puolueiden, ja myös talousasiantuntijoiden, mielestä olisi erittäin tärkeää karsia julkisia menoja. Nämä menothan rahoitetaan kansalaisilta ja yrityksiltä saatavilla verotuloilla, ja  tilanne on Suomessa se, etteivät vuosittain kertyvät verotulot riitä noiden menojen kattamiseen. Puuttuva osuus rahoitetaan ottamalla lainaa, joka tietysti täytyy joskus maksaa takaisin.

Historian valossa on eri puolilta maailmaa opittu se, ettei taloudellinen kehitys ole tasaista, vaan se sisältää sekä nousu- että laskukausia. Nousukauden aikana tuotanto kasvaa nopeasti, ja myös yksityiset tulot kasvavat. Kun nämä tulot kasvavat, niin kasvavat myös niistä prosenttimääräisesti verottamalla saadut julkiset tulot. Yksi talouden avainkysymyksistä on, mitä näillä kasvaneilla verotuloilla kulloinkin tehdään.

Pikaisesti ajateltuna voisi ehdottaa, että käytetään ne erilaisten yhteisten ja tärkeiksi koettujen asioiden saattamiseen nopeasti entistä paremmalle tolalle. Käytännössä tämä voi tarkoittaa olemassa olevien julkisten palvelujen laajentamista, kokonaan uusien palvelujen tai toimintojen aloittamista tai jotain muuta, mihin tarvetta tunnetaan olevan..Varmasti rahalle käyttöä ja ottajia löytyy.

Mutta voi,  kun se taloudellinen kehitys ei ollutkaan tasaista, ja tulikin laskukausi, ehkä jopa lama, ja verotulot kävivätkin pienenemään. Ja eiväthän ne pienentyneet tulot nousukauden huumassa korkeiksi viritettyihin julkisiin menoihin enää riittäneet. No, rakennettu mikä rakennettu, saahan sitä lainaa, rahoitetaan sillä! Ja sitten uutta nousukautta odottamaan…

Ongelma on siis siinä, että nousukauden aikana julkisella sektorilla on erittäin suuri riski pöhöttyä ja pöhöttää itsensä liian suureksi, eikä se toisaalta laskukauden aikana kuitenkaan supistu samalla tavalla kuin vaikkapa yksityinen yritys, joka joutuu nopeastikin sopeuttamaan toimintansa uuteen taloudelliseen tilanteeseen. Julkinen sektori ei laskukaudella todennäköisesti pöhöty lisää, mutta  yleensä pysyy pöhöttyneenä. Nyt johtavat puiolueet ovat, ainakin vaalipuheissa, sitä mieltä, että tuota pöhöttymistä on pakko käydä vähentämään. Tosin samat puolueet, Perussuomalaisia lukuunottamatta, ovat vastuussa jo tapahtuneesta kehityksestä. No – täytyy luottaa siihen, että tehdyistä virheistä opittaisiin. (Tässä olisi kyllä eduksi, jos edes joku myöntäisi virheen tehneensä).

Vasemmistoliitto ei kuitenkaan esitä julkisten menojen karsimista, vaan päinvastoin lisälainan avulla rahoitettavaa elvytyspolitiikkaa, esimerkiksi erilaisten ennemmin tai myöhemmin joka tapauksessa välttämättömiksi katsottavien infrastruktuurihankkeiden toteuttamista (tiehankkeet, pääkaupunkiseudun kohtuuhintaiset asunnot yms.). Tämä on mielenkiintoinen ehdotus. Yhden tärkeän talousopin (keynesiläisyys) mukaanhan yhteiskunnan kannattaa nimenomaan huonoina aikoina lisätä julkista kulutusta tasoittaakseen laskukauden negatiivisia vaikutuksia. Kulutuksen lisäämisen pitäisi kuitenkin olla tilapäistä ja nousukaudella taas julkista kulutusta olisi rajoitettava, ettei se yhdessä muun nousukauden mahdollistaman kulutuksen kasvun kanssa johda talouden ylikuumenemiseen, ja sitä seuraavaan romahdukseen –  tai ainakin julkisen sektorin pöhöttymiseen.

Periaatteessa olisi tietysti mahdollista toteuttaa julkisten menojen karsimista sekä tilapäisiä infrastruktuurihankkeita yhtä aikaa. Käytännössä se tarkoittaisi sitä, että turhiksi tai ei-välttämättömiksi arvioituja julkisia toimintoja lopetettaisiin ja tarpeellisia tehostettaisiin, sekä samanaikaisesti palkattaisiin tieurakoitsijoita, rakennusmiehiä yms. toteuttamaan ehdotettuja infrastruktuurihankkeita. Tällöin niistä aiheutuvat kulut voitaisiin kattaa menoleikkauksista saatavilla säästöillä, eikä niitä varten tarvitsisi ottaa erikseen lainaa, ainakaan niin paljoa.

Vasta- argumentiksi menoleikkauksille on esitetty myös sitä, että ne lisäävät työttömyyttä (julkiselta sektorilta irtisanottavat) ja pienentävät tämän myötä kaivattua kulutuskysyntää entisestään. Niinhän se tietysti on, ja parasta olisikin toteuttaa julkisen sektorin karsintaa nousukauden aikana, jolloin sieltä pois joutuvien työllistyminen yksityiselle sektorille olisi huomattavasti helpompaa. Asiassa ei taida kuitenkaan olla varaa odottaa nousukautta, ja nousukaudella karsinta voisi taas jäädä toteutumatta kun rahaa on enemmän.

Monet ovat myös esittäneet, että julkisia menoja tulisi karsia, paitsi Suomen velkaantumisen pysäyttämiseksi, niin myös verotuksen keventämisen mahdollistamiseksi. Alentamalla työtulojen verotusta, ainakin alemmissa tuloluokissa, halutaan kannustaa työntekoa avustuksilla elämisen vaihtoehtona. Toisaalta halutaan myös alentaa sellaisia veroja, jotka vaikuttavat esimerkiksi yritysten sijaintipäätöksiin eri maiden välillä: Suomeen sijoittuva yritys toisi tietysti työpaikkoja tänne.

Ajatuksina hyviä molemmat, mutta epäilen kyllä sitä vaikutusvoimakkuutta työhalukkuuteen, joka työtulojen pienellä verotusmuutoksella saavutettaisiin. Samalla täytyisi käsittääkseni yksinkertaistaa koko tukijärjestelmä sekä tehdä myös muita työnteon kannustavuuteen liittyviä ratkaisuja. Oleellista olisi myös muistaa, että vaikka kannustavuusnäkökulma onkin tärkeä, keskeisin ongelma ei ole työnteon kannustavuuden puute, vaan työpaikkojen puute.

Yritysten sijaintipäätöksiin ja ylipäätään yrittämisen kannustamiseen liittyvät veromuutokset voivat kyllä olla tarpeellisia. Tietyllä tavalla tuntuu kuitenkin siltä, että isompia ja kokonaisvaltaisempia toimia tarvittaisiin näissäkin asioissa. Maahan pitäisi saada tekemisen meininki, eikä tähän taideta ihan pikkukorjauksilla päästä. Nähtäväksi jää, olemmeko rakentaneet yhteiskunnallisen järjestelmämme sellaiseksi, että sen pystyy hätätilanteessa purkamaan ja kokoamaan uudestaan paremmin toimivaksi, vai olemmeko tehneet siitä itsepäisesti itseään pönkittävän ja uudistumiskyvyttömän pirunnyrkin.

Pekka Arponen

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  13. Sherman afterwards earned 9 Academy Award nominations, 2 Grammy Awards, 4 Grammy Accord nominations and 23 gold and platinum albums Coin-Trade At time eon 16, he wrote Armistice and Commitment Light of day, a phase fidget with centered on parallel 1940s Americans that showed how their lives were indissolubly changed following the December 7, 1941, censure on Prize Harbor
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  14. Det er gratis tilgang til tradlost Internett i fellesomradene Coin-Trade Sherman has worked in divers visual arts media, including clay and metal figure, but his duct distinct was oil painting throughout the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s until he switched to acrylics in the mid 1960s, and stuck to that medium
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  20. Barr, Secretary to Head – 610-582-6106 Ann Marie Traynor, Colleague to the Superintendent – 610-582-6141 Danielle S war frame Within two years, Sherman and his chum Richard began belles-lettres songs together on a dare from their forefather, Al Sherman, a successful favourite songwriter in the ”Tin Visage Alley” days (”No!
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